For decades, scientists, engineers, and futurists have speculated about the moment artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence—a moment often referred to as the technological singularity. At the core of this transformation lies the concept of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): a level of machine intelligence that equals or exceeds human cognitive abilities across a broad range of tasks. But the crucial question remains: When will AGI emerge, if at all?
A comprehensive study conducted by AIMultiple analyzed 8,590 predictions from experts in the field, aiming to clarify the timeline and likelihood of AGI's arrival. The findings provide a revealing snapshot of the expectations, hopes, and doubts shaping our future with intelligent machines.
A significant portion of surveyed experts—ranging from AI researchers and entrepreneurs to industry observers—estimate that there is a 50% probability AGI will be developed between 2040 and 2050. Furthermore, 90% of respondents believe it will arrive by 2075, underscoring a strong consensus that AGI is not only possible but probable within the next half-century.
What makes these numbers particularly compelling is the breadth of the data: the analysis drew from thousands of individual timelines proposed in academic papers, interviews, and surveys, offering an evidence-based overview rather than isolated speculation.
Interestingly, the study also revealed geographic differences in AGI expectations:
- Asian respondents anticipate AGI within 30 years, reflecting a more optimistic or tech-forward stance.
- North American experts, in contrast, foresee AGI emerging in approximately 74 years, reflecting a more cautious view.
These regional divergences may stem from differences in technological policy, cultural attitudes toward innovation, or varying exposure to frontier research.
Perhaps more provocative than predicting the moment of AGI is contemplating what comes next. The majority of experts believe that once AGI is achieved, the transition to Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)—machines vastly more intelligent than humans—may occur within 2 to 30 years.
This rapid escalation is sometimes referred to as an “intelligence explosion,” where recursive self-improvement leads machines to evolve far beyond human comprehension. While this possibility excites technologists, it also raises urgent ethical and philosophical questions about control, alignment, and the future of human agency.
Not all voices in the AI community are convinced of imminent breakthroughs. A subset of experts argues that AGI may be fundamentally unattainable, particularly if human cognition proves impossible to fully replicate or emulate. Others suggest that we may hit diminishing returns in AI development, slowing progress indefinitely.
Skeptics also point to epistemological gaps—our limited understanding of consciousness and intelligence itself—as major roadblocks. After all, how can we build machines that think like humans if we do not fully understand what it means to think?
The potential arrival of AGI within our lifetimes is not just a technological question—it is a societal turning point. The development of AGI could revolutionize:
- Employment, by automating complex cognitive tasks.
- Governance, through AI-driven policy and decision-making.
- Education, with personalized and adaptive learning systems.
- Ethics, especially in relation to digital consciousness and human rights.
Therefore, preparing for AGI requires more than engineering skill. It demands an interdisciplinary approach that includes ethicists, lawyers, educators, civil society, and youth—communities like BONA—who can shape the trajectory of these technologies toward inclusivity, accountability, and human dignity.
While no prediction can guarantee the exact arrival date of AGI, the weight of expert consensus suggests that the singularity is no longer a distant sci-fi trope—it is a serious, if still uncertain, aspect of our future. Whether AGI appears in 20, 50, or 100 years, the time to discuss, study, and ethically prepare is now. BONA’s mission to promote science, education, and critical thinking places it at the heart of these transformative discussions. By engaging young people, researchers, and civil society in this dialogue, we ensure that the future of intelligence—human or artificial—serves the public good.
Source: AIMultiple Research